German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to secure a second term in the country’s general election on Sept. 27, a Berlin-based scholar has said.
The only doubt is whether the conservative Merkel would be able to form a center-right coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) or be forced back into a “grand coalition” with the leftist Social Democrats (SPD), Jan Techau, head of the European Studies Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations(DGAP), told Xinhua in an exclusive interview on Thursday.
“I think it is pretty clear that Ms. Merkel will stay as the chancellor of the country,” Techau said.
“There are only two realistic options for the coalition government, either the conservative-liberal coalition with Merkel as chancellor, or the continuation of the grand coalition between conservatives and the SPD where she will also be the chancellor,” Techau said.
He added that the two options are “too narrow” so far and “it is hard to say which option will prevail.”
But “in terms of who will be the next chancellor, they will make not much difference,” the scholar said.
“The grand coalition has done good work but now it is time, in the worst crisis of the last 60 years, to use everything at our disposal to assure fresh economic growth,” Merkel has told the press, explaining her preference for the FDP.
As many as 27 parties in Germany have registered to compete in Sunday’s election, among which Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), the SPD, the FDP, the Greens and the Left Party are the dominant ones.
The latest poll survey released on Wednesday showed support for Merkel’s conservative bloc (CDU/CSU) stood at 35 percent, followed by the SPD with 26 percent, the FDP with 13 percent, the Greens with 11 percent and the Left party with 10 percent.
The advantage suggests Merkel has a good chance of winning a second term in the weekend election.
The FDP has openly rejected a possible coalition with the SPD or the Greens and the Greens has opposed the idea of seeking a coalition with the FDP or the CDU/CSU.
According to Techau, if Merkel’s party and the FDP together win48 percent of the vote or above, “it will be safe” for them to form a new center-right coalition government.
But whether this could happen is far from certain, as polls show that Merkel’s conservatives, together with the FDP, hold a meagre 1-3 point lead over the other main parties in parliament –the SPD, environmentalist Greens and Left Party.
On Sept. 14, Merkel and her top rival Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the SPD’s candidate for chancellory, staged a live pre-election TV debate, which local media branded as “short of passion and personal attacks.” The Bild, Germany’s biggest-selling daily newspaper, joked that the debate was “shop talk between the chancellor and her deputy.”
As part of the “grand coalition,” the CDU/CSU and the SPD found it difficult to “attack each other fiercely” because that might “hurt themselves,” Techau said.
For the other three opposition parties, they have to rely on the two big parties to enter the government, so they, too, avoid thorny criticism, he said.
Currently, there is no major social crisis in Germany like those in the 1960s, 1970s or 1980s, so the parties could not stir up a big issue in their campaigning and could merely stay “comparatively calm.”
Looking ahead, Techau predicted that there would be “no major change” in the domestic and foreign policy in the next government.
“I think there will be, by and large, a strong continuation in German politics,” he said.